Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 1.308553 1.488565 1.681221 1.902391 2.148909 2.414860 2.723106
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 1.048308 1.287012 1.559556 1.892456 2.286710 2.737276 3.289639
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 0.886266 1.168472 1.510584 1.952781 2.505793 3.170865 4.027143
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 0.737305 1.043425 1.437076 1.974608 2.682800 3.576486 4.780877
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 0.648527 0.982475 1.436747 2.089904 2.993017 4.184006 5.856805
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 0.529960 0.862265 1.341479 2.067901 3.122577 4.575991 6.702485
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 0.444257 0.775418 1.280941 2.087192 3.313277 5.074048 7.749766
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 0.368065 0.689776 1.209705 2.081694 3.469142 5.542624 8.809903
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 0.322211 0.645622 1.196840 2.165074 3.770366 6.256928 10.303833
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.279509 0.598967 1.173008 2.228220 4.049048 6.968368 11.868365
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.238714 0.547670 1.133176 2.259211 4.280115 7.630796 13.424849
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.204981 0.503170 1.098544 2.294832 4.524258 8.340431 15.127374
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.163917 0.435403 1.011136 2.227215 4.591886 8.786291 16.481698
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.130119 0.374862 0.926692 2.152200 4.637730 9.203337 17.837455
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.109249 0.339512 0.888892 2.165937 4.856087 9.954004 19.856789
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.089736 0.301850 0.838355 2.144902 5.004543 10.595217 21.748212
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.079211 0.285782 0.835646 2.229730 5.382529 11.711595 24.624323
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 0.063730 0.249903 0.776128 2.174137 5.457126 12.249439 26.464425
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 0.053019 0.225063 0.739585 2.167165 5.637646 13.018115 28.824068
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 0.043471 0.200365 0.697509 2.138873 5.766565 13.695349 31.066824
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 0.038261 0.189310 0.692075 2.204694 6.123497 14.884793 34.443729
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 0.033275 0.177098 0.680379 2.252041 6.443171 16.026279 37.819661
2025-05-04 00:00:00+00:00 0.028350 0.162934 0.659068 2.269050 6.690980 17.035077 41.003050